Recently a few colleagues and I were sitting around the table discussing the factors of probability and possibility, when the discussion changed gears to these so called 'experts' that are placing predictions about the hospitality industry in front of investors and, in turn, investors are buying it hook, line and sinker. Understandably, the investors may have never peeled potato one in their life and in some cases don't spend a lot of time if, any, in their investment (and, yes, there are some that spend every day in there). At the end of the day, all that really matters is their financial bottom line. Now, just so there's no confusion, I believe in a capitalist society. However, high profit margins are pure greed and greedy I am not.
So far, with a very few exceptions, the 'experts' have been leading investors down the primrose path to failure. When it come to operations, they have been wrong about the entire hospitality industry and their crystal balls couldn't be more fogged, perhaps by all of the large fees that they charge. Funny, we have no problem yelling at the TV on any given Sunday asking for the instant termination or benching of our team's $6,000,000 quarterback. Yet we continue to listen to bad advise from our financial quarterback, the 'expert'.
In November 2009, the 'experts' predicted that in the Q2 2010, that the hospitality industry would see a healthy recovery. That didn't come to pass. In Q2 2010 they said that by the 4th quarter of 2010, the industry would be well on its way to a full and healthy recovery and that by the end of Q1 2011 the train would be chugging effortlessly along the path to financial stability. I'm still on the platform waiting to see that train (while working on independent programs that don't rely on the 'experts'). Here we are at the end of Q3 2011 and we're still waiting. The train has, once again, run out of gas. Understandably it's a crap shoot; roll the dice and watch the chips come in or go away, but unlike a game of chance in a casino, there seems to be no validity to the probability or possibility to back up the prediction of the 'expert'.
Collectively, we have re-branded, deep discounted, couponed and prostituted our souls to save our blood, sweat and tears soaked investment so that people without jobs, less disposable income, no 401Ks or pension benefits will come in and open their wallets. Where are these 'experts' now? Why are they still collecting paychecks? Whys is anyone really listening to them anymore? To me, it seems like a recurring nightmare that we all survived with the big banks and the big 3 automakers not too long ago.
Maybe a solution would be to listen to the people that are working in the trenches for you and the people that are signing your checks, your guests. Maybe finding out what your guests really want instead of giving them what you think they want and what the failed 'experts' say they want. Not by a paper or on-line sterile survey, but by going downstairs or out to the dining room and actually listening to what they want and acting like owners running for Mayor as you wish us in the trenches to do. face it, they already know me, but they don't know you. After all, maybe they are the real experts. Oh by the way, the 'experts' called. They have some more advice for you................
